New data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence indicates a rise in tankers diverting away from the Red Sea following military strikes on Houthi targets. Since Jan. 12, over 106 tankers have altered their routes to avoid the area.
Lloyd’s List is monitoring a significant decrease in transits of tankers and bulk vessels through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Vessel tracking data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded a 40% week-on-week drop in crude tankers passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the week ending Feb. 4. The average daily number of active vessels in the Red Sea last week was 212, down from approximately 229 the previous week and 373 the previous year.
In response to the military strikes on Houthis, more than 100 tankers have diverted to travel around the Cape of Good Hope. However, data from Vortexa suggests that the number of crude tankers rerouting is increasing. This data specifically covers cargo-carrying vessels of 10,000 deadweight tonnage or more based on pre-Houthi attack averages taken from the period Nov. 6 to Dec. 3, 2023.
The decline in Red Sea transits is also reflected in Suez Canal transits, which are down 10% week-on-week with 218 vessels passing through the canal. This is 54% below the average and 51% lower compared to the same period last year.
Bulk carriers experienced an 18% week-on-week decline, while crude oil tankers fell by almost 40%. The trade route around the Cape of Good Hope saw a 7% increase in transits compared to the previous week and a 65% increase year over year.
The spillover of tanker diversions is now affecting Russia, with diversions of Russian oil flows to India and China being observed. Russian oil has also been mistakenly targeted by the Houthis due to outdated vessel data.
Despite the attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the war risk insurance arrangements for vessels transiting the Red Sea are currently deemed sustainable. According to U.S. defense officials, there have been 41 attacks since Nov. 19, prompting comparisons to the tanker war of the past.
Neil Roberts, secretary of the Joint War Committee and head of marine for the Lloyd’s Market Association, expressed concerns over the situation, describing it as a challenging issue to address. The potential impact on insurance and the need for increased security measures are key considerations in navigating the evolving situation.
